2015 Predictions

With the new year right around the corner, I figured I'd join the rest of the professional prognosticators and share my market-related predictions for 2015. I hope to cast a wide enough net that I'll be praised for one correct prediction while the rest of my wrong predictions will be all but forgotten. This is only standard practice in the art/science of professional prognostication. 

Alright, let's get to it. In no particular order, here are my $TWENTY15 predictions:

• Return of the small caps. After severely underperforming the broader market this year, small caps will begin outperforming the rest of the market by a large margin. 2014 has been nothing but chop for small caps. There was a bunch of talk about how the underperformance in small caps was indicative of an impending crash in the broader averages. At one point in October, the Russel 2000 was down 10% from highs, and was negative year-to-date as recently as December 16. While the Nasdaq is up 14% YTD and S&P 500 up 12% YTD, the Russel 2000 is up less than 3% YTD, positive gains of which came in just this past week alone. Mind you though, that the Russel was up nearly 40% in 2013 so it's only made sense that we've seen a year's worth of consolidation to digest those gains. Size has mattered in 2014, and I believe it will matter again in 2015 - only this time smaller will outperform. 

Major US Market Averages - YTD

• Increased market volatility. The past 3 years or so there has been very subdued market volatility. People (including myself) have been calling for a rise in volatility for a couple of years now, especially ever since 2013's aberration of slow and steady high returns. This year we saw relatively short periods where volatility would tick up but then things would go back to business as normal. Volatility really picked up though in October when the S&P had been down 10% from its highs and closed below its 200-period moving average for the first time in  2 years. Since then, the market has snapped back to make new highs. In my opinion, October's action will end up being a prelude to further market volatility and this time with some real staying power. This isn't to say I'm bearish on equities in 2015; I just believe there will be more market gyrations to come. If this is the case, then it will be especially imperative that you know who you are as a market participation and your respective time frame (as it always is). 

Average True Range (ATR) of SPX - Weekly

• There will be a flood of financial pundits giving their two cents when the Fed raises its target fed funds rate some time next summer. $SPY message volume will spike the day Fed actually announces its rate hike. 
• King Dollar will remain strong in 2015: Foreign monetary authorities have engaged in slashing interest rates & effectively undergoing their own QE programs. Meanwhile the Fed is set to make its first rate hike in over 6 years next summer. In addition, in response to fears of a slowdown in global growth, the US dollar will continue to see the notorious "flight to quality" that we all know and love. Export-dependent companies will gripe about the US dollar's strength in their conference calls and will blame their poor revenue numbers on poor international sales, warranted or not. Technically, there may be some resistance in the low $90's but I'd expect further appreciation in King Dollar. 

US Dollar Index - Weekly

• Cyber security stocks will be bid up even more. Honestly, I'm surprised we didn't see a broader, more momentum-type run in cyber stocks this year given all the hacking scandals this year (too many to name). Perhaps 2015 will be the year of cyber security. Here's a quick list of names I'd keep an eye on, many of which are at or near highs: link
• Bitcoin will trade back above $500.

BTCUSD - Daily

• Oil ($CL_F) will stay below $80 a barrel but won't make new lows in 2015. Oil, along with energy-related names, will rebound in Q3/Q4 of 2015. 

Crude Oil WTI - Weekly

• Alibaba ($BABA) will make new highs in 2015.

Alibaba (BABA) - Daily

• My S&P 500 target for 2015 is 2200... just because. 
• It may take awhile but $XLE will be one of the top 3 best performing sectors in 2015. 
• Gold will trade below $1000/ounce. 

GLD - Daily

• People will try to catch the top in the market as well as the top in bonds. 
• People will try to catch the bottom in oil. 
• Some longer term, individual stock charts that look very interesting to me are Citibank ($C) and Ebay ($EBAY). Both have pretty similar looking weekly charts - both have been consolidating/going sideways for well over a year. First, Citibank has been trading between about $45 and $57. A weekly close above $57 would be very interesting to me. Second, Ebay has been going sideways for about 2 years now between $47 and $59 or so. You may recall that I was bullish EBAY heading into 2014 because of this very same consolidation pattern. The stock made new all-time highs early in the year, and there were many people pointing out the breakout as well. Unfortunately,  the breakout ended up being a false breakout, as the stock traded back to the lower end of its weekly range. I'm sure there will be many eyes on this one if/when we see another attempt at a breakout. If we get a real breakout this time, I could easily see this one trading up towards $70-$80. One step at a time though. 

C - Weekly

EBAY - Weekly

Let me know if you have any questions or comments. 

StockTwits: @MarketPicker

Twitter: @MarketPicker 

Disclosure: As of this writing, I'm long BABA and USO. 

A Stream of Thought: $BABA

I haven't been very active at all this past month as I've been busy with school, however, I managed to share my thoughts live regarding BABA (Alibaba Group, Inc.) on StockTwits recently. I just wanted to combine my tweets and annotated charts to share my thought process. I didn't have an actual position in this particular trade since I wasn't able to commit enough time to monitor the trade. And before you say this is just "Monday-morning-quarterbacking" let me remind you that I shared my thoughts live on StockTwits and Twitter (below). Had I been able to monitor the trade, it is very likely I would've actually taken this trade myself.

Here's an annotated chart outlined my thought process:

Here's a 5min intraday chart (11/17/14) showing low-risk short entry:

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. 

StockTwits: @MarketPicker

Twitter: @MarketPicker

Remember When - $SPX $SPY

Remember when the S&P 500 broke below its 200 moving average for the first time in something like 2 years, breaking its stellar track record? Not anymore! This morning the SPX gaped back above the 200ma and, as of this writing, is trending higher intraday. I'm sure today's move has caught many people by surprise (including myself) given the large pullback we saw weeks earlier. I noted recently that I didn't believe the risk/reward favored the long side but that I would continue to take setups on an individual basis, i.e., the stock's own merits.

I think many people strongly believed that last week's break of the 200ma signaled a further pullback in the market to come (e.g., 20-30% pullback). Again, while I thought the risk/reward didn't favor the long side at the time, I wasn't in the camp that the market had to see a further correction merely because the SPX's long-running streak above its 200ma had come to an end.

In fact, it's extremely common for the SPX to test its 200 moving average some time during the year, and the market certainly hasn't been down every year it has done so. Going back to 1970, there have only been 3 years where the SPX didn't test its 200ma intrayear: 1989, 1993, & 2013. (Thanks to @RyanDetrick for helping me out with this test). Clearly, testing the 200ma isn't such a rarity.

So remember, just because a trend ends doesn't mean we have to see a full on crash. Personally, I think we base a bit and end up rallying to new highs by year-end. But that's just speculation at this point. I'll take things as they come.

A Look Down Memory Lane - $SPX $RUT

We all know the stock market has been falling rather rapidly these past several weeks. From fears about slowing global growth (read Europe) to the Fed finally ending QE to potential rate hikes next year, we can speculate all day long as to what the reasons are for this change in character we're seeing in the market, but I personally don't see much benefit in doing that.

To get a better sense of the recent change in market trading behavior, consider this: the current daily average true range (ATR, 14) of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is 31.77, which translates into an average percentage range of 1.70% based on yesterday's close, the highest it's been - on a point basis - in 3 years. Compare this to just one month ago when the ATR was 13.27, which translated into an average percentage range of a mere 0.76%! Volatility is clearly here. How long it stays is a different question.

Another aspect to consider is the fact that the S&P 500 is treading the positive year-to-date line, closing up 0.78% YTD as of yesterday's close (10/16/14). At one point - September 18 - the S&P 500 was up YTD by 8.82%. Having given back virtually all of those gains again speaks to increased volatility that we've seen in the market.

The most recent example of a similar type of market (that I can recall) was 2011 - specifically late summer and fall of 2011 during the whole budget fiasco and downgrade of U.S. debt. While the the headlines were completely different and separate then than they are now (for the most part at least), I thought it may be helpful to compare 2011's performance with this years performance to see if there are any similarities - or differences - that may be useful.

I've created a chart of 2011's "intrayear" year-to-date performance for the S&P500 as well as the S&P 500's YTD performance so far this year (note: the charts below are simply a rolling YTD performance tracker for each year). As you can see from the charts below, in 2011 the SPX fell hard during August of 2011, from being up about 7% for the year to falling down to over -10% YTD. After bottoming right around the beginning of October, SPX then recouped those losses in a volatile fashion and ended up closing flat that year.

Comparing this to 2014's YTD performance so far, you can see there are some similarities and differences. You can see that for 2014, SPX chopped around in the beginning of the year before finally trending up, albeit relatively mildly later this year, which is a bit different than 2011's chart. However, more noticeable (IMO) is the similarity - the increased volatility that sprung up right around the same time. Make sure when you're looking at the chart to mentally readjust for the incomplete data for 2014. 

So using 2011 as a guide, perhaps we rally back some near the end of Q4 which has historically been a positive period. Granted, in 2011 the SPX was rallying from being down sharply YTD while the SPX today is still positive. Note: I want to stress you shouldn't try to use 1 solitary data point in your analysis (like we're doing here). I'm not saying we have to do anything. All I'm doing is just trying to get an idea of what could happen going forward. 

SPX Performance YTD - 2011

SPX Performance YTD - 2014 (partial)

Compare this to the smooth, slow grind higher that we saw in 2013 where the SPX closed up 30% for the year (which honestly was just a freak of nature given not only the performance but just the way it got there):

SPX Performance YTD - 2013

If you're interested to see what the Russel 2000 (RUT) was doing back in 2011 - since that's all everyone seems to have been talking about this year, especially lately - I posted the charts below for 2011's performance as well as the RUT's YTD performance so far this year. The one striking similarity I see is that for both 2011 & 2014 the RUT was relatively weak compared to 2013 or even 2012, oscillating between flat and up 4-7% or so. Something interesting nonetheless.

RUT Performance YTD - 2011

RUT Performance YTD - 2014 (partial)

So maybe we rally later this year. Maybe not. I don't know. I'll keep my mouth shut and let the market do the talking. I thought this trip down Memory Lane might be fun nonetheless.

Trade well.

Market Commentary (10/10/14) - $SPX $SPY $IWM

Are you dizzy yet? The equity markets have seen increased volatility these past couple of week with the market rallying hard on Wednesday afternoon following the Fed minutes, only to give back the entirety of those gains the next day. Today, the market made new lows and ended up closing on dead lows.

The decline in the market is being attributed to fears concerning slowing global growth, the Fed finally taking away the magical punch bowl, probable rate hikes next year after 6 years of ZIRP, Ebola (or so I was told), the fact Katy Perry will perform at this season's Super Bowl halftime show, the unstoppable strength in the dollar, and just because. All said and done, the Nasdaq was down 4.4% this week, IWM was down 4.47%, SPX was down 3.1%, and QQQ was down 3.77%. To get a sense of the action these past weeks, take a look at the performance chart below for the past 3 weeks below:

3-Week Performance Chart

In all seriousness, though, there are some signs that concern me going forward. I'll lay out some of them below. I will say, though, that I agree this isn't the ideal place to initiate shorts - after the market has now pulled in 112 handles from its recent highs, but I am bearish on the market for the first time in a long time. If we bounce and start to reclaim levels, I have no problem switching my bias, but as things stand now, things don't look good. This isn't to say we have to have an '08 type crash, but strictly from a risk/reward standpoint, the long side is not favorable here and now in my opinion. Here are some reasons I feel this way:

• The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed above its weekly 200ma for the first time in nearly 3 years. While I typically don't consider moving averages to be exact levels (more as "zones"), the weekly 200ma has acted as nearly perfect resistance for the VIX these past couple years, making it a level of significance. The close this week above the weekly 200ma tells me there may be some staying power in volatility, opposed to the quick spikes we've seen lately that are quick to dissipate. 

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) - Weekly Chart

• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed below its weekly 21ema (this is just the moving average I happen to use) for the first time since 4/11/14. However, this week's close below the 21ema was much more decisive than the most recent close below. You can also draw trendlines as well, and SPX broke below them too.

SPX - Weekly Chart

• The average true range (ATR, 14) continues to climb, reflective of the increased volatility that we've been seeing lately. I noted recently on StockTwits that spikes in ATR (& thereby volatility) have marked turning points recently. The fact that volatility uncharacteristically continues to climb may be indicative of further gyrations going forward. Generally, a gradual increase in volatility (expansion) is a bearish signal, whereas when the market advances, it typically does so in a type of "grind mode" with the occasional quick pullback that ultimately resumes higher. 

SPX's ATR (14) - Daily Chart

• SPY (the ETF for S&P 500) touched its 200sma for the first time since December 2012. In addition, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed below its 200sma for the first time since December 28,2012. This doesn't necessarily have to be a bearish signal, as the 200ma for both are still trending up, but this could change eventually. However, I think at a minimum it speaks to the change in character we're seeing. 

I know you probably feel like you hear this too often, but it bears (no pun intended) repeating especially now: understand who you are as a market participant, have a clear grasp of your true time frame, and let price be the final arbitrator. One of my favorite quotes comes from @millenial_inv post, saying "Risk can only be accurately assessed in combination with a time horizon." Awesome, right!

I'm still long a small handful of names after getting stopped out of some names already. I'm still long TWTR, CELG, and AAPL. I acknowledge the faulty action in CELG and the nasty move today in TWTR (down nearly 9%). For these positions, I'm only in half size currently or less after taking profits and/or trimming risk weeks ago. My trailing stops for all 3 positions are relatively close, and I have no problem getting stopped out of all three (which doesn't seem all that implausible). 

This isn't about me (or anyone else for that matter) getting a pat on the back for trying to pick a top in the market. I don't know if September's highs will mark "the top" (whatever that's supposed to mean). I just know that from my perspective, the risk/reward does not favor the bulls currently. 

Are Emerging Markets Set To Outperform U.S. Equities? $EEM $SPY

Last week I mentioned that the IShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM) was nearing an important resistance level near $45. I also noted on StockTwits that there was a bullish weekly RSI divergence on the EEM/SPY spread. With EEM closing above that $45 level for the third day in a row today, I thought it may be a good idea to do a quick blog post to journalize and share my thoughts.

As you can see on the weekly chart below, EEM is now above that important $45 level, although it has yet to close above the level on a weekly basis. Also, EEM is currently above all major moving averages on all major time frames and is clearly trending up. @harmongreg offered his thoughts as well on the Re-Emergence of the Emerging Market ETF as well. 

EEM, weekly chart

In addition, the EEM/SPY ratio has shown some weekly divergences that could have bullish implications as well. As you can see in the ratio chart below, the EEM/SPY spread made a new low earlier this March, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low - which is typically seen as a bullish divergence. 

EEM/SPY ratio, weekly chart

Seen another way, the SPY/EEM ratio (which is simply the inverse of the above chart) made a bearish weekly divergence, where the spread made a higher high that was not confirmed by momentum. 

SPY/EEM ratio, weekly chart

Another interesting little tidbit is the extreme underperformance we've seen in emerging markets (EEM) since the '09 lows in the SPX. As you can see on the performance chart below, SPY is up well over 200% since those March 2009 lows, while EEM is currently only up about 150% since then. Visually, you can see that the underperformance in EEM relative to SPY has become much more pronounced. Perhaps time for some catch up?

SPY vs EEM % performance since March 2009

Lastly, a fundamental component of the EEM story is the low price-to-book ratio levels which tend to only been seen during prior crises, which you can see in from the below chart that @ukarlewitz shared (link below). Technicals tend to lead fundamentals. 

Chart

Now I know I'm a big preacher of only focusing on price and not using a plethora of lagging indicators (technically, all indicators expect price are lagging indicators), but the combination of the technical breakout in EEM above $45, the bullish weekly divergence in the EEM/SPY spread, EEM's historical relative underperformance, and even the low price/book ratio levels gives me reason to believe that emerging markets (as measured by EEM ETF) are about to outperform - on a relative basis - the S&P. 

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below. 

StockTwits: @MarketPicker 

Twitter: @MarketPicker

Disclaimer: Long EEM as of 9/5/14

A Quick Excel Study

I'm on vacation, so I'll make this quick. For some odd reason I decided to run a quick test in excel looking at gap ups and downs in excess of 1 percent going back to SPY's inception (1993). These numbers aren't adjusted for dividends or splits because I wasn't able to attain an adjusted "open" so I had to keep things consistent (i.e., unadjusted). If you'd like to see the excel test I did in its entirety, just email me and let me know.

Going back to January 29, 1993 to yesterday (August 18, 2014), on an unadjusted basis, there have been 224 gap ups of at least 1 percent and 235 gap downs of at least 1%. Out of the 5,427 total trading days in the look-back period, this represents 4.13% and 4.33% of total trading days consisting of gap ups/downs of at least 1% on an unadjusted basis, respectively.

More interestingly, I decided to look at the percentage of time that SPY closed higher than where it opened on gap up days (at least 1%) and closed lower than where it opened on gap down days (at least 1%). When SPY gaped up at least 1%, it closed higher than where it opened 58.04% of the time. This compares to a 51.59% total (closing above where it opened). On the opposite end, when SPY gaped down at least 1%, it closed lower than where it opened 48.94% of the time, compared to a 47.13% total.

As you can see below, even when SPY gaps down at least 1%, the intraday performance (i.e., where it closes in relation to where it opens) has been positive, both on an average and median basis (0.09% and 0.06%, respectively). While the performance numbers themselves may not seem too impressive in magnitude, the fact that SPY has averaged out a positive median intraday positive performance going back to 1993 seems to suggest, on aggregate, buying strength (specifically, gap ups in excess of 1%) has been better than shorting gap downs in excess of 1%.

While this clearly isn't meant to serve as a trading strategy, I think it provides some insight into the historical performance of the market (specifically, SPY ETF). In addition, this rather truncated analysis doesn't provide any insight into the market structure (bear/bull market); this is another big component that needs to be considered as well.

Interesting nonetheless (at least for me, hopefully for you as well)!

			%
	Gap Ups	224	4.13%
	Gap Downs	235	4.33%
	Total Days	5427
Pos Close	130
Neg Close	115
Gap Up, % Pos Close	58.04%
Gap Down, %, Neg Close	48.94%
Up, Avg Perf	0.22%
Up, Median Perf	0.29%
Down, Avg Perf	0.09%
Down, Median Perf	0.06%
		%
Total Close>Open	2800	51.59%
Total Close<Open	2558	47.13%

Late Night Reading

I'm getting caught up on some late night reading this evening. Some of the articles below are "old," but still worth reading. Here are some things I've read so far: 

Go Be Different via @upsidetrader 

Which is the Best S&P Sector to be Overweight? via @allstarcharts 

Are Commodities for Trading or Investing via @awealthofcs 

Just a Little Thing via @AdamHGrimes

Why is the Yield Curve Flattening? via @cullenroche over at pragcap.com

Putting the "Underperformance" of Active Managers in Perspective via @cullenroche over at pragcap.com

The pullbacks have become shallower and shallower... A 10 Year Look At The SP 500 With Corrections via @TheFibDoctor also @seeitmarket 

That's the bottom line cause Stone Cold said so... The Bottom Line by Carl Icahn via @Carl_C_Icahn

What's volume got to do with it... Is Volume A Good Market Indicator via @andrew_falde 

Kick 'em to the curb, maybe not... Fired Managers Outperform Hired Managers via @ReformedBroker 

Job Market Tilts Toward U.S. Workers in Virtuous Cycle via @BloombergNews

Top Performing Stocks Year-to-Date via @bespokeinvest

Unlocking the Mystery: Why US 10 Year Treasury Yields are Down at 2.4% via @Convertbond

Corrections happen. Get used to it... Halfway Through a Correction via @ritholtz

2014 in Charts So Far via @RyanDetrick

The pressure on employers to offer more generous wages could be increasing... JOLTS Report Show More Labor Market Strength via @bespokeinvest 

Advice Doesn't Have to be Complicated to be Good via @awealthofcs 

You Suck!... Reminder: You are 'Shockingly' Terrible At Investing via @bySamRo also @businessinsider

"All else equal, a talented sales staff will trump a talented investment staff when attracting capital from investors." Unfortunate Realities of the Investment Business via @awealthofcs 

Quit acting like you know it all, Mr. KnowItAll... On Embracing Stupid 

How Do You Insure a Driverless Car? via @wsjeyesonroad also @WSJ

Coke, Pepsi Try To Fatten Bottom Line With Smaller Servings via @AnjaliAthavaley also @Reuters

Timeless advice... Ask a Grown Man: Stephen Colbert

Here's Why Twitter Probably Doesn't Mind That Some Of Its Users Are Robots via @mathewi also @gigamon

Twitter Learns From Facebook by Revamping Its Advertising Fees via @JackMarshall also @WSJ

Has The Healthy Eating Movement Hit an Inflection Point? via @Skrisiloff 

Learning to Shun the Instagram Life via @behaviorgap also @nytimes

How Hillary Will Try and Distinguish Herself From Obama via @awprokop also @voxdotcom

"Individuals subconsciously resist factual information that threatens their defining values." How Politics Makes Us Stupid via @ezraklein also @voxdotcom

A Soft Gap Fill - $KMI

Kinder Morgan ($KMI) was gaping up big this morning and was up over 20 percent in the pre-market on news that it was consolidating its oil-and-gas pipeline business into a single company. While I expected there would be some profit taking on the open, I didn't really expect to see the "soft" gap fill that we saw during the first hour of trading ("soft gap fill" meaning the stock doesn't fill the entire gap but rather pulls into recent support). If you were aggressive, you could have shorted it on the open below pre-market support at $42. I passed on the short, as I was not only unsure of the potential on the downside but I was also watching some other things as well.

I eventually bought some around 10:45am as the stock pulled into $38, which had been resistance (now support, or should) about 3 weeks ago. I thought there was a pretty good chance it would drop out below $38, so I put out a bid @ $37.82 to nibble on some and planned on hitting it out below $37.40. I added some around 11am after the $38 bid held. I scaled out of some into $39 and $39.50 (which was right around VWAP). Then, a little before noon, I sent out a tweet on StockTwits noting that KMI had finally crossed above VWAP after spending the entire morning below it and that I was looking to add on a consolidation above intraday VWAP. When a stock spends a significant amount of time below VWAP and breaks above VWAP, that's a bullish sign cc @MikeBellafiore

I stuck to my plan and added, but was eventually stopped out of my added shares and got flat after it broke back below VWAP, but still for a pretty nice profit. FYI, had I not been stopped out, I was planning on selling some into $41 and would have gotten flat into $42 (had been pre-market support).

KMI, daily chart showing $38 level

KMI, 5min chart with trade management

Once quick thing I wanted to point out. For my intraday trading, the only "indicators" I use are price, volume, and VWAP. For my swing trades (longer time frame), I have some moving averages plotted, but I don't use them as specific levels but instead use them as a quick visual reference of a stock's current trend. My intraday trading has much more to do with support and resistance levels (longer-term charts as well as intraday levels) than anything else. I don't like to clutter my charts with a plethora of indicators, especially when looking at shorter time frames. That's just me though.

Anyways, thanks for reading.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below.

StockTwits: @MarketPicker
Twitter: @MarketPicker

Market Commentary: $SPX $SPY

Photographer: Jason DeCrow/AP Photo

Given yesterday's 2 percent down move in the S&P, we've been hearing many different market perspectives on where we are and where we can go (many from people whom I respect and follow). I figured that I might as well offer my perspective as well, if nothing more than a personal entry in the trading journal.

SPX (SPY) broke and closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 10 of this year, or almost 4 months (note that the last time SPX simply closed below its 50ma was April 15, but the last time it crossed below and closed below was April 10). It took 4 trading sessions after closing below the 50ma to then close back above the moving average. The time before that was January 24 of this year, at which point it took 12 trading sessions before we were back above the 50ma. In those cases - 4/10 and 1/24 - the declines after closing below the 50ma were roughly 0.90% and 2.92%, respectively (calculated as the closing price of the first day below the 50ma minus the extreme low of the down move). Remember this is just for 2014, so the sample size is small. 

I then decided to run some tests in excel using the 50-day moving average as the look-back indicator. For disclaimer purposes, I believe theses numbers are correct, but they are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. So the first test I ran was looking to see what the average number of consecutive days the SPX has spent below its 50-day moving average. I decided to look back 5 years because of the "gen low" of '09. To my surprise, the average number of consecutive days spent below the 50ma was only 4 trading sessions. To be fair, this average can definitely be (and probably is) skewed by large numbers, especially considering the fact that prolonged periods below the 50ma occur in scarce clusters that aren't evenly dispersed throughout the data set. 

I then looked at the percentage of time the SPX spent below its 50ma on an aggregate basis for the entire look-back period, which was 25.66%, meaning of the 1259 trading sessions 25.66% of them were spent below the 50ma. I also looked at how many times the SPX simply crossed below the 50ma (just the 1 day closing below) and found that the SPX has crossed below - on a daily closing basis - its 50ma 37 times since July 31, 2009, that is, of the 1259 trading sessions since July 31,2009, 2.94% of those trading sessions involve the SPX crossing from above to crossing and closing below the 50ma. In other words, it hasn't happened all that often. 

For visual purposes, I've included a chart showing the number of consecutive days the SPX has spent below its 50ma going back 5 years. Notice that the max is 52 consecutive trading days (or about 10.4 weeks), which was back on November 8, 2011.

Ok, now to the technicals. As you can see from the daily chart of the SPX below, yesterday the SPX broke its upward channel, closed below the 50ma, and closed dead on lows with a 2 percentage point drop. 

SPX, daily chart

Looking at the weekly chart, this move so far just looks like another pullback. In the chart below, I've plotted both an 8 and 21 weekly ema (these are just what I use. You can easily use a 20sma as well). I don't consider these exact levels, I use them more as a way to give me a quick visual idea of the trend of the market. Notice that we have seen SPX close below the the weekly 21ema before, 3 times in fact going back to late 2012. However, we haven't seen any type of distribution once below. Rather, these past instances have been met with buying pressure, and the market simply resumes its uptrend. 

SPX, weekly chart

While I recognize the current "pullback-ish" period we're seeing right now, for me to become more cautious on the longer-term picture of the market (SPX), I'd have to see a multi-week period below the 21ema, as this would signal to me a change in character, i.e., a longer-term distribution pattern. 

The funny thing is how people say they want a pullback in the market as its rising and then become overly bearish as it actually pulls in with a "this time is different" mentality. I mean look, yes this persistent bid in the market will come to an end eventually. Is this time different? I haven't a clue! The pullbacks have become shallower and shallower over the course of this bull run. I don't think that means we have to see a 20-30% correction as Marc Faber decisively predicts though. 

We shall see. I will let price do the talking. 

Thanks for reading. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below. Also, if you feel my numbers are off or would simply like to see my calculations, just contact me for the excel file. 

StockTwits: @MarketPicker 

Twitter: @MarketPicker

The Importance Of Independent Order Flow - $FB $QCOM $SPY

SPY closed positive today by a mere penny, so certainly there wasn't anything going on in the market, right? Wrong. As I noted on StockTwits, there were several names I was looking at today on an intraday basis.

While I was watching a handful of different stocks, my primary focus today ended up being Facebook (FB) and Qualcomm (QCOM), as you can see below:

FB - beat Q2 earnings estimates, opened up over 6 percent higher (it had been as high as $78 pre-market). While I feel that given the large pre-market up move we saw, some of the intraday opportunities were limited, I still managed to make a couple of trades in the stock, seen below.

QCOM - beat earnings, but offered weak guidance. Stock opened down over 5 percent. I made a note on StockTwits that I was watching the $77 level right on the Open, as there was a seller that appeared there. I covered my short on the quick 1 point drop down to $76. I tried a short once again when I saw what I thought was a $76.20 seller. The stock made a new low after I got short but quickly reversed, stopping me out of my position.

FB - trade management on the Open (1min)

FB - trade management after the Open (5min)

QCOM - trade management (1min)

Please don't equate a slow day in the indices as being the same as being a 'slow' day overall in the market. This seeming paradox is especially apparent given the nonvolatile nature of the indices themselves (except for perhaps IWM) combined with being in the heat of earnings season. When the indices aren't moving, I'm not trading the indices. I shift my focus even more on stocks exhibiting unusual order flow (read volume) that are gaping up or down by a significant amount with fresh news catalysts behind them (e.g., earnings). I want to be trading stocks that are moving on their own, that is, stocks that are In Play. I will be focused on where the movement is. The concept of stocks with independent order flow is key for shorter-term traders. While it doesn't guarantee success, trading stocks that are In Play will significantly increase the probabilities that you are profitable on a net basis for the day.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below.

StockTwits: @MarketPicker
Twitter: @MarketPicker

Down Days For SPY

Recently I've been playing around with simple backtests in excel, ranging from the proverbial "golden cross" and "death cross" in multiple instruments (e.g., SPY, GLD, etc) as well as other look-back tests (e.g. # of days above moving averages, etc). I don't consider myself an expert in excel whatsoever, far from it. With that said, the most recent test I ran in excel is looking back to see the number of consecutive down days in SPY year-to-date. With a relatively small sample size, you could just look at a chart and do the calculations manually, but in instances where you're looking back 20 years (as I have done in previous tests), the power of automation in excel can be very helpful.

Here's a link to my google docs showing my calculations as well the tweets I sent out earlier summarizing my findings: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ocgi-I_FmSq0fPUlFXbpOtDNmgTQscxm3J-Z3gOSozs/edit?pli=1#gid=0

=======================================================================

Update: I ran the same exact test in excel using the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and the results are slightly different than the results for SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P). While SPY is meant to track the SPX and its movements, there are times when small discrepancies do occur between the two instruments. The main takeaways from this new test are listed below:

• The most consecutively negative days for SPX is still 3 days year-to-date, however, this has occurred 4 times this year compared to only 3 times for SPY. 
• So far year-to-date, if SPX has closed down 2 or more times the next day has been positive 77.78% of the time, with an average next day return of 0.23% (median return 0.37%). This is compared to SPY's stats - seen in the link above - which has closed positive 81.25% of time with an average next-day return of 0.28% (median return 0.43%). So compared to SPY, the SPX has a slightly lower probability of closing higher the following day if down 2 or more previous days, and also has a slightly lower average next-day return. 
• I still find it interesting that even despite the choppy action we saw in the markets earlier this year, the S&P (both SPX and SPY) have closed positive the next day over three-fourths of the time if down 2 or more consecutive days. And even more interesting to me is that the S&P hasn't been red 4 consecutive days - even marginally - so far this year. Eventually this track record will be broken, but who knows when. Maybe this time is different...?

Please let me know if you believe I have made any errors, as I'm sure most of you reading this are more familiar with excel than I am!

StockTwits: @MarketPicker

Twitter: @MarketPicker

Late Night Reading

I have plenty of unread books on my bookshelf that I hope to get around to actually reading one day. Until then, I'll just admire their covers. 

One book, though, that I just started reading is Beating The Stock Market by R. W. McNeel. I have the much older version that was printed in 1927. I felt compelled to briefly share some of what I've read so far (emphasis mine): 

From Chapter 1:

"The greatest single route by which men of the present day try to beat the fundamental law of existence, try to get something for nothing, or get rich quick, is through our modern stock market....
There is something mysterious and magical about the idea of the stock market which appeals to the imagination....
It is indeed an interesting and attractive game, one which appeals to the imagination and the desire for adventure and about which a great deal of romance has been built up. Its mystery appeals to the human mind, and its apparent creation of wealth by magic makes its acquisition by the slow means of rendering service to society for it seem stupid. 
While this view of the stock market is all wrong, and any one who regards it in this idealistic light is destined to failure, it is not surprising that a great mass of people should be attracted to it as a means of acquiring wealth, or at least as a means of making money bring large returns....
Where the public in general does err is in thinking the market is a 'get rick quick scheme.' It is not a game which pays something for nothing, or much for little. It is a game which repays liberally careful study of the underlying conditions which cause stock-market fluctuations. But the reward is apt to be more or less commensurate with the effort put forth to master it. It is a game to be beaten, not by disregarding the fundamental law of existence, but by remembering the old law that in order to reap the rewards of this world one must give something of himself, of his time and efforts and abilities, in order to acquire them." 

From Chapter 2: 

"Those who win in speculation do not make a success of it because they take a chance. They win because before they take a chance they use every human power to eliminate risk. One of the most successful speculators in Wall Street says the reason he has made a fortune through the rise and fall of stock prices is that before buying he always investigates stocks and the stock markets with the greatest care. His success has been due not to the fact that he bought, and therefore assumed risk, but in that he investigated most carefully what he was buying before he took a chance."  

From Chapter 3: 

"One of the veterans of the 'street,' who has made a fortune in Wall Street and kept it, asked for the secret of success, said: 'Few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life when they have one foot in the grave."

From Chapter 4: 

"To say that the way to make money in the stock market is to buy stocks when they are low and sell when they are high may seem so broad and unsatisfactory a rule as to be of no practical value in speculation. But in reality the difficulty is not in knowing when stocks are cheap and when they are dear. The chief reason speculators fail to buy when they are low and sell when they are high is that they have not the courage, the initiative, and will power to act on their knowledge. Lack of knowledge of values is a much less frequent cause of loss in the market than the lack of those other sterling qualities of character which are necessary to make a successful speculator. And without them, all the rules of success and all the knowledge of what ought to be done to make money by speculation in the stock market will be valueless....If one is emotional, if he lacks the power of independent thought and the power of will to act on his own knowledge, he should keep out of the stock market. If one is temperamental that he is carried away by the enthusiasm or depression of the moment, failing to act when he should act and acting when he should not, he should keep his money in the savings bank. Otherwise, some one will get it away from him." 

I haven't read any further in the book yet. It's amazing how these concepts were written back in the 1920s and yet are very much applicable to today's modernistic (aka electronic) markets. 

Source: McNeel, R. W. (1927). Beating The Stock Market. McNeel's Financial Services. Revised Edition, Ninth Printing

Amazon link to later edition 

Is TSLA Ready To Run Again?

One of the most memorable short squeezes I've seen in the past couple of years was in Tesla Motors (TSLA) back in early 2013. I still remember its momentum run from 40 bucks to almost $200 like it was just yesterday. Even more memorable were the constant short calls by fundamental traders because of its "excessive" valuation. It's one thing to pass on a stock because it doesn't fit your trading style (a la Warren Buffet during the Dot Com Bubble), but to actually short a high growth, momentum-driven stock simply because it trades at a hefty multiple is simple a bad strategy in my opinion. I'm not saying I believe fundamentals are useless. In fact, I believe in the long-run (10+ years), stocks are indeed driven by earnings growth and other fundamental catalysts. But I just don't understand how some of these guys on TV so confidently profess to short TSLA without price confirming their fundamental thesis. Price is the final arbiter, as @JBoorman would say. Or, only price pays, as @alphatrends says.

With that little rant out of the way now, I'd like to share some quick thoughts of mine regarding TSLA from a longer-term perspective. Let's jump straight to the chart. As you can see from the weekly chart below, TSLA corrected 40% back in late 2013. After the 40% haircut, TSLA proceeded to make new all-time highs, running up over 128% from lows. TSLA saw a similar correction earlier this year, pulling in 33% from its recent pivot highs at $265. To a simplist like me, it would appear that TSLA may be setting up for another leg higher. 

TSLA, weekly chart

One thing that I noticed was this most recent correction was not only slightly smaller in magnitude but it took a longer period of time as well (assuming last month's low are indeed the lows). To me, this suggest that a second up leg may be more of a grind higher and longer in duration as well. 

Now, I've been messing around with different ways of producing upside targets. None of these are full proof and they shouldn't be considered concrete price targets. In addition, it can be difficult to apply percentage moves as a stock's price increases, since it has to move many more points for an equivalent percentage move. I'm just trying to get a general idea of how high the stock could reasonably run. The first method: after the 40% correction last year, TSLA ran 36% above the prior pivot high (which had been the all-time high). If TSLA were to run 36% above the current all-time high ($265), that would take the stock to $360.

TSLA, weekly chart (method 1)

The second method: I just decided to put some fib extensions on the chart. As you can see from the two weekly charts below, TSLA stalled out at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension before its recent 33% correction. Currently, the 161.8% fib extension sits around $320. I guess that's simple enough. 

TSLA, weekly chart (method 2)

TSLA, weekly chart (method 2)

The third method: TSLA runs 128% like it did the last time it corrected! This is the most simplistic and perhaps the most glib method (although not unreasonable over the long haul). 

I guess you could say that TSLA is relatively weak considering the Nasdaq Composite is less than 1.5% from all-time highs and QQQ recently made new all-time highs while TSLA is over 22% from its all-time highs. Perhaps it's time for some catch up? 

What I have surmised from this cocktail-napkin technical analysis is that it is very reasonable to believe that TSLA not only makes new highs soon but it may very well run above $300 a share. Other factors suggesting TSLA may see another leg higher include strong fundamentals as well as its high short interest (which is still over 26% according to finviz). @jfahmy did a nice job recently laying out some of his reasons that he still likes TSLA as well here. On a more intermediate basis, a strong move above 212-215 would trigger a long for me with a daily stop loss below $200. If/when this happens, I will be sure to send out a message on StockTwits and Twitter. 

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below. 

You can follow me on StockTwits or Twitter. 

Please Short Responsibly - $SPY

We all know that we're in a strong bull market right now. Aside from the many calls for a 10-20% correction in the broader markets (IWM actually already did this), the major indices are all up for the year as well as for the month. Coming into this week, SPY was clearly "overbought" with a number of indicators in overbought territory, but as I noted on StockTwits, these indicators by themselves were not a short signal. I also noted on StockTwits that SPY needed to break below $195 first before it had a chance of pulling in further. I like to think of these counter-trend market plays as a type of scalp because they are counter-trend in nature. I wasn't looking to catch a top or capture 20 points to the downside. I was simply looking for a counter-trend short trade looking to play a 2-3 point pull in.

On Wednesday (6/11/14), SPY was gaping below that $195 support level I had mentioned. If SPY was holding below $195-$195.20, I would look to put on a short. SPY failed multiple times to hold above $195, so I got short @ $195.05. I wanted to see SPY get below its pre-market low of $194.60 and then take out $194.30 support level. SPY ended up trading down to $193, which was my downside target. As of now, I'm flat SPY. Going forward, I'd be interested to see what SPY does now with $194.30 resistance and $193 support. The market could very well just consolidate and moves sideways. I guess we shall see. 

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments in the comments box below. You can follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.