Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Are Emerging Markets Set To Outperform U.S. Equities? $EEM $SPY

Last week I mentioned that the IShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM) was nearing an important resistance level near $45. I also noted on StockTwits that there was a bullish weekly RSI divergence on the EEM/SPY spread. With EEM closing above that $45 level for the third day in a row today, I thought it may be a good idea to do a quick blog post to journalize and share my thoughts.

As you can see on the weekly chart below, EEM is now above that important $45 level, although it has yet to close above the level on a weekly basis. Also, EEM is currently above all major moving averages on all major time frames and is clearly trending up. @harmongreg offered his thoughts as well on the Re-Emergence of the Emerging Market ETF as well. 
EEM, weekly chart

In addition, the EEM/SPY ratio has shown some weekly divergences that could have bullish implications as well. As you can see in the ratio chart below, the EEM/SPY spread made a new low earlier this March, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low - which is typically seen as a bullish divergence. 
EEM/SPY ratio, weekly chart

Seen another way, the SPY/EEM ratio (which is simply the inverse of the above chart) made a bearish weekly divergence, where the spread made a higher high that was not confirmed by momentum. 
SPY/EEM ratio, weekly chart
Another interesting little tidbit is the extreme underperformance we've seen in emerging markets (EEM) since the '09 lows in the SPX. As you can see on the performance chart below, SPY is up well over 200% since those March 2009 lows, while EEM is currently only up about 150% since then. Visually, you can see that the underperformance in EEM relative to SPY has become much more pronounced. Perhaps time for some catch up?
SPY vs EEM % performance since March 2009

Lastly, a fundamental component of the EEM story is the low price-to-book ratio levels which tend to only been seen during prior crises, which you can see in from the below chart that @ukarlewitz shared (link below). Technicals tend to lead fundamentals. 

Chart

Now I know I'm a big preacher of only focusing on price and not using a plethora of lagging indicators (technically, all indicators expect price are lagging indicators), but the combination of the technical breakout in EEM above $45, the bullish weekly divergence in the EEM/SPY spread, EEM's historical relative underperformance, and even the low price/book ratio levels gives me reason to believe that emerging markets (as measured by EEM ETF) are about to outperform - on a relative basis - the S&P. 

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments below. 

StockTwits: @MarketPicker 
Twitter: @MarketPicker

Disclaimer: Long EEM as of 9/5/14

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